Post date: Aug 19, 2009 11:48:15 AM
This topic raises the controversial issue of whether, on balance, {main issue}. Indisputably, {admit some value in the opposite opinion}. Nevertheless, {provide evident to refute the opposite opinion}. Thus, I generally disagree with the opinion that {opposite opinion}, and would argue that {main assertion}.
First of all, {assert an positive viewpoint}. I would like to point out that the {main support to the position}. To illustrate, let us look at the example of {an example}. In this circumstance, obviously {some observation}. Consequently, it is pretty obvious that {main assertion}.
Furthermore, {refute the opposite side, e.g. if .. not true, then ..}. Specifically, {look into one area to dissuss the effect}. [Both common sense and personal experience have told us that ...]. Hence, all the evidence above demonstrates that ...
Admittedly, {opposite opinion}. This is true especially when it comes to {specific areas or applications}. In addition, {further provide some support}. However, the above argument does not constitute a sufficient support to claim that {opposite opinion}. Because {some reason}, {main refutation}.
In conclusion, although {the opposite side}, {refute the opposite and give main support}. As long as {some measurements are performed, or some areas are involved}, {main conclusion still holds}. [In fact, {extend the topic to broader/more abstract areas}.]
In this editorial/memo/letter, the author/someone has argued/concluded/recommended that …. To justify/support (OR: In support of) this conclusion/recommendation/argument, the author/someone reasons/notes that…. As further support (for the argument), the author/someone also points out that …/cites that … Finally, the author/someone cites/notes that … However, careful scrutiny of the evidence reveals that it provides little credible support for the author’s/someone’s recommendation/conclusion (in several critical respects). (OR: In several respects, this evidence provides little credible support for the author’s/someone’s recommendation/conclusion.)
First of all, ...
Secondly, …
Similarly (OR: Thirdly), …
Fourth, …
Finally, …
In conclusion, the author’s/someone’s recommendation/argument/conclusion that … (OR argument for the proposed something) is unpersuasive as it stands. To bolster it, the memo’s/letter’s/editorial’s author/someone must provide clear/better/more concrete evidence (, perhaps by way of a reliable survey/a detailed analysis of …,) that … The author/someone should/must also show/demonstrate that … and that … (Additionally, to justify/demonstrate the claim that … the author must provide supporting evidence.) Finally, to better assess/evaluate the recommendation/argument/survey, we would need to know more information about why/what/how … (OR: to compare …) (and why/what/how …)
作者认为A是B的充要条件,所以改善A可以解决B.但是最可能的情况是: A并不是B的充要条件.
思路:
A.1) A不导致B,其他因素C或D导致B (无关事件)
A.2) 可能相反是B导致了A (反向因果)
A.3) A要在C的前提下才能推导出B,而C没有被提及 (不当假设)
A.4) 即使A是B的条件,A也不能保证B发生,因为还有其他的因素;或者,即使A很好,也不能保证A是最好 (非充分条件)
常见的错误模式是,因为C推导出了D,所以类似地采用A去推导B. C和D之间的因果联系可能是问题,见上一点.同时,A和C之间,B和D之间是否可以类推也是问题.
思路: B.1) 类比的对象自身特性不完全一样(主体有别)
B.2) 类比的对象面对的问题领域不同(问题有别)
B.3) 过去的情况不能指明未来的趋势,情况可能会变化(时间有别)
作者想证明因果联系,但是论证不充分.
思路: C.1) 单独个例不能说明问题(论证不足)
C.2) 调查数据不能说明问题: 样本的有效性没有证明;调查方法的有效性没有说明(调查无力)
作者假定了A和B是互相排斥的,所以由A不成立推导出B成立.然而,这样的互斥性必须被证明.
思路: D.1) 可能存在中间路线,或者除了A和B还有其他选项C,D(无互斥性)
The author unfairly assumes that B were attributable to A. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that A has nothing to do with B. For example, perhaps C happened and B might happen irrespective of A. Similarly, perhaps it was D why B happened. After all, the author provides no evidence that A was actually responsible for B. Without considering and ruling out other alternative explanations why B happened, the author cannot convince me that A should be done.
Example
First of all, the chairperson unfairly assumes that the three band awards were attributable to Schade's abilities and efforts. Lacking evidence to confirm this assumption, it is entirely possible that Schade was not the school's band instructor when the band won these awards. Or, perhaps the band won all three awards early in Schade's tenure, and his predecessor is to be credited. For that matter, perhaps it was the improved quality of the band's musical instruments that should be credited for the awards. After all, the chairperson provides no evidence that Schade was actually responsible for this improvement. Without considering and ruling out other possible reasons why the band won the awards the chairperson cannot convince me of Schade's abilities or, in mm, that he should be appointed to the district job. (AA24)
Secondly, the mayor fails to account for other possible causes of the trends in Ocean View during the last two years. The increase in tourism might have been due to improving economic conditions nationwide, or to unusually pleasant weather in the region. The new businesses that have opened in Ocean View might have opened there irrespective of the new golf course and hotel. And, the 30% increase in tax revenues might have been the result of an increase in tax rates, or the addition of a new type of municipal tax. Without ruling out these and other alternative explanations for the three recent trends in Ocean View, the mayor cannot reasonably infer based on those trends that Hopewell's economy would benefit by following Ocean View's example. (AA23)
It is possible that the author has confused cause with effect respecting {the problem}. Perhaps C was a response to D. In that case ... ... Since the author has failed to account for this possibility, the claim that A would similarly cause B is completely unwarranted.
Example
First of all, it is possible that the mayor has confused cause with effect respecting the recent developments in Ocean View. Perhaps Ocean View's construction of a new golf course and hotel was a response to previous increases in tourism and business development increases that have simply continued during the most recent two years. Since the mayor has failed to account for this possibility, the claim that Hopewell would boost its economy by also constructing a golf course and hotel is completely unwarranted. (AA23)
The mere fact that A happened proves nothing about C. The author assumes that C is what. However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, it is more likely that C is something else. If so, A might not necessarily mean that B would happen. Without substantiating his assumption, the author cannot reasonably conclude that A should be done.
Example
First, the memo does not indicate what kinds of jobs Sparks is now advertising--the ones for which salaries are to be twice those paid to Automate's assembly-line workers. Those jobs might be top management positions or other jobs for which salaries are often significantly higher than those for assembly-line work. If so, this fact would serve to refute the president's assumption that Sparks is paying higher salaries than Automate for similar work. (AA25)
Even if B is attributable to A, the author assumes too hastily that A will cause B. The author has not accounted for the possibility that C will happen. Or, perhaps D happens. Unless the author can convince us by addressing these possibilities we cannot accept the author’s conclusion that A should be done.
Example
Thirdly, even if the recent trends in Ocean View are attributable to the construction of the new golf course and hotel there, the mayor assumes too hastily that the golf course and hotel will continue to benefit that town's overall economy. The mayor has not accounted for the possibility that increased tourism will begin to drive residents away during tourist season, or that new business development will result in the town's losing its appeal as a place to visit or to live. Unless the mayor can convince me that these scenarios are unlikely I cannot accept the mayor's recommendation that Hopewell follow Ocean View's example. (AA23)
Finally, in recommending Schade for the job the chairperson fails to consider other possible job candidates. Even if all the evidence shows that Schade is well-qualified, perhaps one or more other individuals would be even more suitable for the job. Without addressing this possibility the chairperson cannot convince me that the district should hire Schade. (AA24)
The author’s argument rests on the unsubstantiated as assumption that B and D are sufficiently alike in ways that might affect the impact of A. However, they might differ in some aspects. For example, B might lack something. For that matter, perhaps B is… If so, A is not a reasonable solution for the problem.
Example
Finally, the mayor's argument rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that Hopewell and Ocean View are sufficiently alike in ways that might affect the economic impact of a new golf course and hotel. Hopewell might lack the sort of natural environment that would attract more tourists and new businesses to the town--regardless of its new golf course and hotel. For that matter, perhaps Hopewell already contains several resort hotels and golf courses that are not utilized to their capacity. If so, building yet another golf course and hotel might amount to a misallocation of the town's resources--and actually harm the town's overall economy. (AA23)
Even if A is to be attributable to C, it is possible that C is dissimilar to B. For example, in B … while C … If so, then the fact that C would amount to scant evidence at best that A would achieve B.
Example
Even if Schade is to be credited for the band's awards, it is possible that the skills that Schade possesses and which resulted in the band's winning these awards are not the same skills required for the district position. For example, perhaps Schade's music-conducting ability or his ability to motivate individual students was responsible for the band's award winning performances. If so, then the fact that Steel's band won these awards would amount to scant evidence at best that Schade would make an effective administrator for the district. (AA24)
The statistical reliability of the survey’s results is questionable. The number of participants, N, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusions about {the problem}. The larger the overall population of B compared to the sample of N participants, the less reliable the survey’s results. Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of all population of B. For example, perhaps the N participants happened to be those ones who are what. Lacking assurance that the N participants are statistically representative of all population, the author cannot draw any reliable conclusion based on the survey.
Example
Even if the participants' punctual and regular attendance was due to the breakfasts provided to them, the statistical reliability of the trial program's results is questionable. The number of participants, 100, might constitute an insufficiently small sample to draw any reliable conclusions about how district students 5-12 years of age would behave under similar conditions---as a group. The larger this group compared to the sample of 100 participants, the less reliable the study's results. Also, the sample might be unrepresentative of district students as a group. For example, perhaps the 100 participants happened to be children who eat small dinners and are therefore hungry for breakfast. (AA26)
The argument assumes that A and B are mutual exclusive alternatives and there is no room for a middle ground or other choices. However, no evidence is provided to substantiate this assumption. In fact, the author overlooks the possibility that both A and B may happen together, resulting a better solution. Similarly, it is also possible that C would happen. Either case, if true, would serve to undermine the author’s claim that B would happen.
Example
Finally, the argument suffers from "either-or" reasoning. Based on the fact that Monroetown residents are opposed to Brown's proposed tax cut, the author unfairly concludes that they must be in favor of Greene's proposal. However, the author overlooks the possibility that Monroetown residents are not in favor of either proposal.